Video Game Crash

Discussion in 'Indie Related Chat' started by Mickey Crocker, Sep 1, 2004.

  1. Mickey Crocker

    Mickey Crocker New Member

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  2. Pyabo

    Original Member

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    Bah... wasted my time reading half that article. :cool:

    Let's ask the author to put his money where is mouth is. I got $500 says the video game industry will still be a multi-billion dollar industry in Fiscal Year 2006. Let's see your greenbacks, pardner.
     
  3. Norbyte

    Indie Author

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    That article really was a pointless waste of time. :eek:
     
  4. princec

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    Some of his comments are interesting and may turn out to be accurate. The industry is, like any other, prone to boom-bust cycles.

    Cas :)
     
  5. oNyx

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    We already talked about that article over at the old board (or over at JGO? I'm not sure).

    Summarized from the top of my head:
    -He's a jaded gamer. He just got older like anyone else and lost his interest in video games (like most people do sooner or later).
    -He forgot that there is a stream of new players, who hadn't played *any* games before.
    -We are HAVEN'T reached a technological plateau. Once we get photorealism with something extremely slow like flash or basic we've reached something you could call a technological plateau from the video game pov.
    -Sure the industry will grow, shrink, grow, shrink... but there won't be a big crash again. The only reason for a crash (these days) would be if everyone instantly loses interest in playing games. Unlikely as in winning the lottery 10 times in a row.

    edit:
    While we're at it... some relatated linky:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/3616436.stm
     
    #5 oNyx, Sep 1, 2004
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2004
  6. papillon

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    It's always possible for the console market to crash. All you need is the same thing that happened before - for all the big players to make such monumentally stupid decisions that they ALL fall apart. Atari released a bunch of awful games (not to mention the ET fiasco). Coleco sank all of their money into a computer system that didn't work.

    People can get sick of consoles. *I* am sick of consoles. I don't own one and haven't since the SNES. Keeping up with the updates is a pain (and I don't dig 3d anyway).

    But the PC market isn't controlled by three big entities that make all the decisions about what comes out on the platform. You can't really take computer games away. (Well, unless they manage to get that stupid Trusted Computing thing they babble about sometimes to actually become law and enforced.)

    You could even look at this as a great thing - There are people swearing that all major video game producers are shifting from the PC to the console because the console version is more reliable, harder to pirate, and sells more copies. So imagine that the PC market actually does falter and fade, with the big names leaving. And then suddenly there are too many console games, companies make stupid decisions, and the console market crashes. What's left? Why..... SMALL companies making PC games! And us! :)
     
  7. GhostRik

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    Hmm, he lumps the NES in with the original video game crash, but IIRC the NES came out AFTER the video game crash of the early 80s. From my perspective as a video game consumer of the early 80s, what led to the Atari debacle was (and I'm not blaming anyone here): After Activision proved that a third-party company could legally produce games for the Atari console with no royalties everyone got into the act to make a quick buck. The market was rapidly flooded with third-party cartridges. I remember the crash distinctly because suddenly I could pick up Atari-compatible games that were previously $20-$30 for 50 cents at Target. And many of these games truly were horrendously dreadful wastes of time, with blotchy graphics and simplistic, repetitive gameplay. It's easy to see how anyone who paid full price for a few of these (game cartridges were non-refundable!) would feel like they'd just thrown money into the street, get fed-up and simply stop buying.

    There's a good reason console makers build licensing into their systems. Over-saturation of garbage will kill them. Those Atari cartridges were produced in such great numers that they were still available at discounters well into the 90s.

    Memories...
     
  8. GameStudioD

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    This guy is right on the money.

    A lot more can be said about the game industry and the mistakes its making right now.

    The game industry will crash, but it wont be sudden. People will always be playing games. But, gamers will slowly stop playing games for many reasons mentioned in the article. Game companies will make more games and more games, saturating the market. With more games and less customers, revenues will take a hit. This will be percieved as a crash by the media.
     
  9. Sunshine

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    No, I hate to disagree here, but this article is not only completely wrong, but also very poorly written.

    I still play 8-bit nintendo, and Castlevania ROCKS! This system was the inspiration for many of the game programmers I know to become programmers! And the SNES [IMHO] was the best console of all times!

    I thought the article was way off base, but when he started talking about Rouge Squadron, I knew he didn't have a clue. Not only did Rouge Squadron stink it up, almost every FMV game made was just as bad! If you had predicted doom and gloom in the FMV craze, it would have been believable. But now with all the great games coming out and the price constantly falling, and all the great Indie titles :D , I mean common! It would take a great flood to wipe it all out!
     
  10. tentons

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    The article's wrong about the first reason: graphics are not the reason people keep playing (or stop playing) games. Otherwise all games would just be non-interactive demos that you watch. It's about the conent!! And his implication is that content does not evolve.

    With more computing power, new game design concepts/genres will appear. I play very few FPS games because they're mostly exactly the same game. But there are a lot of other games, and the choice will keep expanding as computing power does. We've been seeing more CPU time dedicated to AI for years now, and that will continue to increase as graphics becomes a fully explored frontier and less of a resource hog.

    I do think he's right about how much time games require and how some busy gamers won't play games that are long. But that creates an interesting opportunity to make short-span games. There are a few indie games that I've seen that can be played in 5 minutes to 30 minutes. There's certainly a market for that, but it's not going to crash the industry.
     
  11. Coyote

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    This one annoyed me many weeks ago when I first saw it.

    This is the equivalent of someone saying in the 1960's, "Now that movies have color and sound, there's nowhere left to go. There's nothing left to wow audiences with, and the entire movie industy is going to crash soon."

    I think Nintendo is subscribing to this school of thought- the belief that the only thing driving the industry is novelty. Or more specifically, the novelty provided only by technology. As graphics reach the point of diminishing returns, they are looking for new whistles and bells.

    It's bull. Though I see companies impaling themselves on skyrocketing development costs believing it. And then they scratch their heads at seeing the success of games like Roller Coaster Tycoon, The Sims, or Bejeweled. Cooler and cooler tech is ceasing to drive the industry. It's still a dominant force (just look at the discussions of the graphics of Far Cry or Doom or the Unreal 3 tech demo), but its waning.
     
  12. Mark Sheeky

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    No matter how good technology is, it gets better. Perhaps one day humanity will live like the guys in Star Trek, and no-one will invent new things because it's all been done but I doubt that will ever happen. As the human population continues to increase and strain natural resources, technology might get more expensive and worse. I don't think society will collapse or anything but I suspect that these times are pretty decadent compared to the future because were using up resources at an unsustainable rate. I seem to have drifted off course. Were we talking about computer games?

    Mark
    Cornutopia Games
    http://www.cornutopia.net
     
  13. Raptisoft

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    Tsk... people have been saying this since there were people. It's another way of saying "we're living in the end times!" And yet, things just keep getting better and better.

    I'll bank on optimism. There might be dips in the gaming road, but it's all going to get bigger and better.
     

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