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Discussion in 'Indie Business' started by Jack Norton, Jan 8, 2010.
found it interesting so thought to share.
Seemed very pessimistic to me. I think the arena for Facebook and "social" games is going to grow much moreso than predicted here. Especially when you factor in Facebook Connect, so the games don't even need to be hosted or "wrapped" by Facebook.
Hmm, interesting post. I think I agree with most of those predictions, I think the facebook gold rush has got a similar shelf life to the iphone gold rush.
Yeah, I can't imagine that FB gaming would become LESS popular especially with Facebook Connect.
As for the IPhone, I was recently wondering if Apple would somehow open up its platform a little more to encourage more INDY developers. Not sure why I was thinking that, but it'd be nice
I wouldn't mind an "Indie Showcase" like Xbox live has, but other than that the iPhone seems like a good place for indies. What improvements would you want?
It's already easier to get on the iPhone than it is to get on the Wii or into GameStop.
Wow... this guy ripped the thoughts right out of my head... I agree with most of his points and do think that FB games will hit that wall within a few years as did iPhone.
That's a bit like saying "Everybody dies." The important part of what he's saying is that it happens this year.
Consumables will never go out of style.
I think he refers more to social / FB gaming, not "all MMO with MT or FTP model". One thing is sure, there's already TOO MUCH free content on social gaming platform. You can play for days without spending 1cent...
That's exactly the sort of stuff I'm talking about.
I heard that the sign up process is a bit of a hassle as well...
I am sorry to post without adding anything to the real topic, but I can't help posting my new favorite Simpsons quote that this reminds me of
"Lisa: I can't leave Springfield! I was born here and I thought I would die here! Homer: It won't be so bad. You'll die someplace else."
As for the actual topic at hand, thank you Jack Norton for posting this link. I have always enjoyed listing to or reading Daniel James any chance I get. As always, I found this this post insightful, helpfully and not at all self serving. I am not sure why Daniel takes the time to share information and opinion like this but I appreciate it. Thanks for linking to it here.
I always appreciate facts to back up opinions, some interesting trends to note in that article.
However, Daniel James did predict at a GDC or Casual Connect a few years back downloads would be gone by about now and we would all be playing online multiplayer games
China banned Facebook. When I was in China last month, I couldn't access Facebook, Youtube and Twitter ( ), This was such an inconvenience. So there are 1.3 billion less people to sustain the growth of social related games and online games have always been hot in China.
That's crazy! I didn't even know that.
Opening up in that market would probably boost FB games' popularity.
Dave Edery (formerly from XBLA) has just posted his thoughts on Facebook:
I'm inclined to agree with his view that the number of apps will vastly increase, but the profitability will become much harder.
I suspect that Facebook will go the way of the iPhone in that it won't be a platform to rely on for all your income from a game and if possible you should treat it as a just seperate platform of many.
It's never good to put all your eggs in one basket.
And basically he was right.
Really? Big Fish, Gamehouse, PopCap, Reflexive, Steam, Direct2Drive, GameStop, Good Old Games, myself and others will most likely disagree.
If the people playing facebook games are ten times the number of people playing downloadables, then yeah, he's kinda right in a relative way. That don't mean Zynga is earning more than Big Fish.
or are they?
I think for now that there isn't much competition, those doing niche MMO are making quite good money.
In the end all comes down to market size, and competition. For example, if nobody else is doing a sort of x-com online game like berserker's one, then he got 100% market share
Another example is what happened to online MMORPG, Everquest was dominating the market until WoW came out, and now they're still profitable but surely not like before.