Stock market investing : Lets play a game

Discussion in 'Indie Related Chat' started by svero, Aug 14, 2004.

  1. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    I thought it might be fun to play a game akin to the WSJ dart game. Basically what I propose is this. We somehow pick 10 random stocks on nasdaq.

    Then we let our local "experts" have a go at their 10 picks. Whoever believes they know something about investing and can weigh the odds in their favor and wants to play. Then we watch the values as they go .. after 1 month, 3 months and 6 months.

    And just see what happens. Will the experts beat the random picks?

    It won't really tell us much one way or the other but I thought it might be fun just the same. Anyone game?
     
  2. Kai Backman

    Original Member Indie Author IGF Finalist

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    I'll play safe and pick the index .. :)
     
  3. Escotia

    Indie Author

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    I'll play if I get time but 10 stocks is too many to do any decent research. I'd suggest making it 5. US stocks only or can we include UK too?
     
  4. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    5 would be ok I guess. I'd prefer to just stick with US stocks.
     
  5. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    There's a site where you can set up stock challenges so I'll see if I can find that and set it up there. That way we wont have to track it all manually.
     
  6. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    We should be able to use this...

    http://game.marketwatch.com/Competitions/CompetitionHome.asp

    But I won't set it up until we have a good number of players confirmed so I don't waste my time. :) So if you're into it just let me know in this thread and when there's enough people I'll set it up. We'll all have to join that site but unless im mistaken it's free.

    - Steve
     
  7. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    Oh and just to make it interesting... maybe we should have a prize. Like a free game registration from each of the losers to the winner or something like that.
     
  8. Mithril Studios

    Original Member

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    So I understand correctly:

    You pick 5 stocks at random, and we (as a team, or individually?) pick any 5 stocks, then you evaluate the price difference after a certain amount of time?

    I'm up for a contest, but in order to be fair we should have a fixed amount of capital to start and then we compare the account values after the time frame.
    The reason being, in this market I would almost never buy and hold (which is what it sounds like you are proposing?)

    This way it permits anyone to enter and exit positions at will, long or short, which are tools I use in my systems.

    It looks like the CBS market watch would work fine.

    I'm game! Although, I don't have any free games to give away yet... but then again, I'm not intending to need to. :D

    Anthony
     
  9. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    I will buy and hold the random stocks in my account. We'll use some post on the board to pick the tickers by grabing the first 5 valid tickers from the letters in the post.

    You guys can do whatever you feel is best to beat my random strategy. So you can short resell etc.. if you like. Whatever the contest site allows. I propose to set up an initial fund of 50,000$ in each account. I will devide my 5 random picks as 10,000$ each. I'll have to see when I get on there what features it has and what I can do. I'll try to make it as open as possible to allow whatever trading strategies people normally use. I don't think we'll be able to do put n calls, but I would rather leave out options trading even if it is allowed.

    Also anyone can play. No need to be an expert. I'll donate a free game to the winner regardless if anyone else does.
     
    #9 svero, Aug 14, 2004
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2004
  10. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    using the thread "Indie boom imminent?" - The first post breaks up into 4 letter potential symbols as...

    Itst ruck medu ring arec entd iscu ssio nreg (ardi) ngth eadv ance (ment)
    ofte chno logy that inde pend (entg) (amed) evel oper sare onth ebri
    nkof ahug eboo mNot just insa lesI thin kthe mark etis sett oexp lode
    with dema ndfo rind iega meso fall shap esan ddow nloa dsiz esTh eman
    tras that weha vebe enfo llow ingk eepy ourd ownl oadt oMBo rles spum
    pout smal lcas ualg ames will bein vali date dIts eems tome that (tech)

    ...where the first 5 valid tickers are the one's in brackets. So that's the companies I will use for the random stocks when and if the game starts.

    ardi
    ment
    entg
    amed
    tech

    - Steve
     
  11. goodsol

    Indie Author

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    5 stocks really isn't enough to do this properly - it puts too much emphasis on a lucky choice and it isn't enough for diversification. 10 stocks would be better and you can get nearly complete diversification with 15. Also, choosing from the NYSE would be superior than the NASDAQ, especially if dividends are counted. With the NYSE you would be less likely to get a real dog, with the NASDAQ you have to rely on a lucky hit.

    IBD EPS and Relative strength ratings (99 is best) of these are:
    ARDI 81 EPS, 1 (!) RS
    MENT 33 EPS, 7 RS
    ENTG 81 EPS, 10 RS
    AMED 98 EPS, 98 RS score! The lucky hit that would drive this portfolio
    TECH 90 EPS, 44 RS
     
  12. svero

    Moderator Original Member Indie Author

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    Well i dont mind switching to 10 stocks if you feel 5 favors random luck, but I was thinking now that those competing against the random picks would choose any stocks, buy and sell as much as they want during the contest period from nyse or nasdaq.
     

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