It has come

Discussion in 'Indie Business' started by Omega, Mar 5, 2005.

  1. Omega

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    Retail games available for download for $19.99

    www.trygames.com. They have Risk II, Monopoly, Tribes 3, Hitman, and 60 minute demos for each one. Also, casual games are mixed inbetween.

    Now, these games are usuall about 300 megs to 2 GB in size. The former will take about 30 minutes to download, the latter 8 hours (on cable.)

    Who is to say that by the end of 2005, the amount of money from downloadable games will not increase five fold from the last year? It just shows that the statistics about downloadable games becoming more and more popular, do not necessarily mean it will all be growth in casual gaming. I would guess that 90% of the growth in downloadable games this year will come from downloadable retail-quality games, and only 10% from an increase in casual game players (still a good thing.)
     
    #1 Omega, Mar 5, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2005
  2. Fantus

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    Those games are not very new. If I take a look in the local toy store I see games like Worms Blast, Roller Coaster Tycoon 2 and other really good games for $10 or less. It's not the price that matters much if you look at triple A title competition, it's the opinion of the consumer if they are willing to spend the same amount of money.
     
  3. Omega

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    Yeah, but...

    I just wanted to get some feedback on the site. If I wanted to start an argument, I would have pointed to Half-Life 2 sales over steam, etc.
     
    #3 Omega, Mar 5, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2005
  4. baegsi

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    I got Hitman for 10EUR before Christmas. The only reason I buy budget AAA games is that I can actually go to a store and get the physical product. I don't think they make much out of 2GB downloadable game. Way too much hassle when I there're so many better alternatives.

    IMHO a real change of the market will be when more companies have steam-like distribution or when the big companies enter the casual market.
     
  5. Bmc

    Bmc New Member

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    trygames has been around for quite awhile
     
  6. gpetersz

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    We already talked about it when "irrational games goes indie" topic was started. :cool:

    The real damned-hardcore player will go to the shop to buy it when
    it is launched, the others might wait until it falls to the budget category (I am talking about AAA titles), like me.

    The ones who wait for this price-fall will not go into the shop but comfortably shop from home with some clicks (like me) and won't care about the "feel&smell" of the box. As high-bandwidth spreads more and more
    people will pay for budget AAA online (in my opinion) what will make quite
    a contest for indies. I create my game(s) alone, outsourcing the music.
    One man is one man. I can't animate 1000s of frames, but any retail creator with 3 lead animators and 10 frames will be able.

    I won't be able to compete the content of these games. So I'll be better on other areas, like good market research, aimed groups of customers and aim at casual gamers who probably don't know the difference between 200 and 20 megs.
     
  7. Hiro_Antagonist

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    Have you guys seen "Atari On Demand?"

    $14.95/month from a huge list of Atari's back catalog:
    http://www.atariondemand.com/main/titlesList.jsp

    Games include:
    -Civ 3 (w/ expansions)
    -Neverwinter Nights
    -Temple of Elemental Evil
    -Master of Orion 3
    -All their crappy 3D arcade game updates
    -All their board games ported to PC
    -*tons* of good kids games. (backyard sports, pajama sam, etc.)

    My understanding is that you can only play while you're paying the subscription, but I think it's a very interesting service....

    -Hiro_Antagonist
     
  8. electronicStar

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    I don't think it's worth it when the games are that big.
    IMHO and given the actual state of technology, downloadable games shouldn't weight more than 500 MB at the maximum.
    Otherwise the customer would just order it in an online store and it would probably arrive quicker than if he tried to download it on his modem.
     
  9. arcadetown

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    Didn't think was viable either. Simple Monopoly game is a whopping 250mb download just for example. But spoke to buddy webmaster working with Trymedia and some of those giant games sold decent enough for him. We pounded our heads wondering how, best guess is the games were a known commodity. Just goes to show you conventional wisdom and "accepted" rules don't always fit.
     
  10. Martoon

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    RealArcade has had a few retail CD games (converted to large downloads) in their mix for quite a while, and they periodically add new ones. For example, they recently added The Game of Life at 334MB. Someone must be buying them.

    Regarding modem downloads, broadband penetration is over 50% now (based on percentage of people with ISP accounts that have broadband vs. dialup). And the people with dialup tend not to spend substantial time online, so they're less likely to be online looking for downloadable games, etc. Based on this, I think it's likely that anymore, the traffic at places like portal sites and download sites is well over 50% broadband.

    Not that having a download that hundreds of megs won't hurt you. But I don't think it's the barrier that it was even a year ago. Times, they are a-changin'.
     
    #10 Martoon, Mar 5, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2005
  11. Omega

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    Yes

    50% of users have Windows XP. 50% of users have Cable or DSL. 50% of users have a resolution of 1024x768 or greater. This isn't 1995 on dial-up anymore :x
     
  12. Mithril Studios

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    What are you basing these conclusions on?

    Anthony
     
  13. Jim Buck

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    But is it the *same* 50% of users that have all these? :)

    That aside, do you really want to eliminate 50% of your potential market?? If so, I'll gladly take 'em. :) (This is assuming these 50% numbers weren't pulled out of thin air.)
     
  14. baegsi

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    IM(very)HO, the only right to exists for indies in business terms is to create new and untried game plays. That's the only area where retail creators (or any big company) are really poor at, and always will be. With a lot of money at stake, nobody can take risks (and why should one?). It's the Long Tail where indies have to aim at. Well, at least that's where I intend to go.
     
  15. cliffski

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    even if it was free I wouldnt download a 250 MB game of monopoly. Thats just stupid. Even on adsl I don't want to waste the time downloading a huge file if its such bloatware. big file means big install, slow install, slow load.... i mean why bother?
     
  16. arcadetown

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    Totally agree. Not saying this is good, but apparently there are enough users seeing it different from us. Still large sizes should be avoided like the plaugue for guys like us. Let's see, 250mb on dsl is 1 hour, on dialup is rest of natural life.
     
  17. Omega

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    I quoted the statistics for resolution, os, and ISP without a reference because I knew they were right, since I low-balled them. I thought we all kept tabs on such statistics for market research??

    Well, it turns out that not only are those mentionables in greater use than 50% like I remembered, but greatly so!

    - In the Fall of 2003, Windows XP became the most widely used OS. In May of 2004, Windows XP was used by half of all users who use the internet.

    As of today, Windows XP is now used by 62% of all such users, of all operating systems available. And of Windows users alone, 70% of them use Windows XP.

    - In February of 2003, at least fifty percent of users have had a resolution of 1024x768 (or greater). Two years later, now 65% of users have that resolution or greater.

    - For the past six months, broadband (Cable/DSL/satellite) users have numbered more than 50% of internet users. Plus, they probably have high-speed access at work, as well. And 25-35% of employees say they browse the internet for a few hours every day at work.

    No links are provided because that would imply that my words aren't good enough. ;x
     
  18. Omega

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    Oh, and even of the group that is least likely to have broadband (those past the retirement age)--a third of them have broadband, as well.

    And finally, I would make an educated guess from those statistics that 40% of all users have all three -- broadband, a high resolution, and Windows XP. Or, 50% of all users have a high resolution and Windows XP.
     
    #18 Omega, Mar 7, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2005
  19. Jim Buck

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    Given, that you are at 47 posts, you still need to provide links. :)

    At the very least, the %s are relative to a pool of people, which would be relevant to know.. as well as how thorough the survey was that was conducted. (I mean, there is no way they could get info of EVERY person that accesses the internet.. they had to extrapolate >50% from something.)

    Also, saying 40% have all 3 is a random guess. Saying that 50% have hires and winxp is also a random guess. Assuming the pool of people polled for hires and winxp are the exact same set of people (which of course it's not), the real % can range from 27% to 62%.

    Always remember that anything can be proved with statistics, so the finer details of how they were created are always relevant.

    In any case, assuming the more optimistic guessing from those numbers, that's still a pretty large % to leave out of potential customers if you tailor a game based on those statistics.
     
  20. electronicStar

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    Well, I have broadband myself, but for some reason I still find it a chore to download 3 gigs of software.(edited: from MBs to GBs)
    Even 250 meg is a lot and I sure wouldn't download a monopoly that size.
    BTW you forgot something in the above statistics : the average hard-disk size.
    I'm sure that a good share of the broadband/high resolution people still use an older HD(lets say>1.5 years) and/or already have a lot of files, and they probably consider 250 meg to 3GB a lot of space to download, uncompress and install...
     
    #20 electronicStar, Mar 7, 2005
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2005

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