It struck me during a recent discussion regarding the advancement of technology that independent game developers are on the brink of a huge boom. Not just in sales. I think the market is set to explode with demand for indie games of all shapes and download sizes. The mantras that we have been following (keep your download to 10MB or less; pump out small, casual games) will be invalidated. It seems to me that technology is moving at a faster rate than the low end of the games market can keep up with. Buy an affordable mid-range system today and in 6 months it barely meets minimum requirements. I do not think that a significant number of people will keep up. So as the high end of the market gets rapidly higher (and smaller as a side effect), the low end moves much, much more slowly. Where then, lies the point of diminishing returns for the game companies? Where do they set their minimum requirements? I think that, in terms of development costs, this decsion will become more difficult to make as time goes by. Ultimately, they will be cutting out a portion of the market which is above the point of diminishing returns. When that day comes, it will bring about an indie boom. Gamers who can't afford to get all of the latest bells and whistles in the latest AAA titles will turn to lower cost, more widely supported indie games in the same genre. RPG, RTS, FPS... anything goes. These will be people who are not in the casual PopCap crowd. People who don't mind downloading a 50, 100, or 200 MB game. Is this just a pipe dream or do any others think it might play out this way (or similarly)? And if you do agree, when does it happen? I'm thinking we'll see the beginnings of it soonish, around the time the Unreal Engine 3 games hit the market (2006). I'm willing to bet that many (not just a few) of us could sit down and start on a hefty project now, spend a one - two year dev cycle and turn a hefty profit for a decently polished product.