'Database' of weekly top 10 sellers in RealAracde since 2001

Discussion in 'Development & Distribution' started by James C. Smith, Mar 6, 2005.

  1. James C. Smith

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    I have collected and organized the weekly top 10 seller list from RealArcade for many years. Here is a link to an Excel workbook with all the data. Some of the data goes back to Match of 2001 when the top selling games were Cue Club, Kyodai Mahjongg, Bingo Slots, Red Ace, Pinball: Thrillride, Jetboat 2, Primal Prey, Flux, Snood, and Solitaire. But there are many gaps in the data. I am missing large chunks of 2001 and 2002, small parts of 2003, and one week in 2004. If you have any of this data I would very much appreciate it if you could forward it to me.

    The same data is included in two formats. One just lists 10 columns with the top 10 games each week. The other format makes it easier to see how each game performed by dedicating a column to each game. In this view you can easily see that Backspin Billiards debuted at #7, stayed at #9 for 2 weeks, and then fell off the list. And at a glance you can see that Feeding Frenzy started at #2 and held it for 8 weeks before making its slow decent down the top 10 list for a total of 42 weeks.

    Using this data I have attempted to make a list of the all time best selling games in Real Arcade. Since I don’t have actual unit sales data this is just a rough estimate. It is based on their placement in the weekly top 10 list. It is assumed that placing higher in the top 10 last helps a game more than placing lower in the list. This ranking does not take into account the growth in the market. In other words, a game that was the #1 seller for 10 weeks in 2001 is given just as much credit as a game ranked #1 for 10 weeks in 2005. In reality, the 2005 game probably sold more units and generated more revenue than the 2001 game. Therefore, my ranking here really says which games outsold their competition of their time. Also, the scoring method is very simplistic. (Explained in the Excel file) Maybe an exponential score would make more senses so that there would be a bigger difference in score between #1 and #3 then the difference between #7 and # 10. Also, there are many gaps in my top 10 data with makes is less accurate. Several weeks have estimate numbers or no numbers at all. This data is slightly biased toward Rebound (a.k.a. Ricochet) because I started tracking these trends when Rebound was released. Other games that came out before Rebound don’t have as much data as they should. Also, for the first few months of Rebound’s life I only tracked Rebounds placement in the top 10 list and not the placement of other games. I have gone back and filled in some of the data for the other games where it was possible to do so (Way Back Machine web archive). If anyone has more accurate data I would love to update my lists.

    Estimated Top sellers of all time in Real Arcade

    Rebound
    Diamond Mine
    Zuma Deluxe
    Kyodai Mahjongg
    Super Collapse! II
    Feeding Frenzy
    Puzzle Inlay
    Magic Inlay
    Mahjongg Towers
    Gutterball 3D
    Jewel Quest
    Book Worm Deluxe
    Scrabble
    Cue Club
    Super Collapse
    The Red Ace
    Jigsaw Puzzle Golden Edition
    Cubis Gold
    Bejeweled 2
    Rebound Lost Worlds
    Chainz
    Magic Ball 2
    Insaniquarium
    Mah Jong Medley
    Slingo Deluxe



    Obviously, some of those games (Zume) are still selling very well. They may eventually eclipse the games that were once great but don’t sell so much anymore (Rebound).

    Rebound was in the top 10 for 103 weeks in a row from 1/18/2002 through 1/2/2004. Diamond Mine was in the top 10 for 114 non-consecutive weeks but had a slightly lower average position than Rebound. Zume has 62 weeks and counting (it is recently averaging between the #4 and 5 stop in the top 10). Super Collapse II had a 65 week run ending last December. Feeding Frenzy’s 42 week run also ended last December.

    See the actual week by week data in the Excel file to see how much of this was estimated data (highlighted in grey) vs. hard data and to see how all the other games did.

    Feel free to post the most interesting trend you found or new ways you have created to organize and visualize this data.
     
  2. Omega

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    You just want to be relatively certain to have had the #1 game on RealArcade, that's what you're trying to do ;) Actually, that would be a great selling point.
     
  3. James C. Smith

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    :D I may have had the #1 selling game on Real Arcade but I know it won’t last. Zumu will over take it soon according my “scoreâ€￾ system and I sure Zume already overtook it a long time ago according to number of units sold. Zuma being #1 for the first 4 months of 2004 had to be way more valuable than Rebound’s top 4 camp out in 2002.

    Regardless, it is really cool to see all this data on all the games.
     
  4. Bmc

    Bmc New Member

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    awesome! thnks for sharing! :)
     
  5. bill

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    this kind of market research is mandatory reading. thanks
     
  6. PoV

    PoV
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    Yeah, that's awesome. Thanks for sharing James.
     
  7. Stu

    Stu
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    This is a treasure of data. Many thanks James.
     
  8. James C. Smith

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    I almost forgot to say thanks to JPGinLA and Matthew. Last week they both sent me several weeks worth of newsletters to fill in one of the gaps I had. I am still hoping someone else has some older newsletters achieved (or that one recent issue #190) and is willing to share.
     
  9. JPGinLA

    JPGinLA New Member

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    Interesting stuff James. Why don't you just ask someone at Real (Dan Prigg?) or Dave Nixon or some other alum to get you the missing newsletters? I'm sure they'll oblige.

    -JPG
     
  10. Daniel

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  11. Fantus

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    Amazing information. I tried to turn it into a chart but that didn't go too well :)
     
  12. goodsol

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    For completeness, the game that they for some bizarre reason referred to as just "Solitaire" in the 2001 lists is Pretty Good Solitaire. You can see this in the way back machine by clicking on the solitaire link in the top list.

    Too bad the lists don't go back to 2000 :)
     
  13. James C. Smith

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    Thanks Daniel. I filled in the one missing week and posted a new version of the file.

    Goodsol, thanks for the info about “Solitaireâ€￾. I was wondering which one it was but I didn't take the time to investigate. I will update my data.
     
  14. Stu

    Stu
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    I have been playing with simple formulas which assign a 'copies sold per week' value based on their placement in the top ten. Sure it's crude but it may give some idea. I assume you are using a similar formula. Would you share it?
     
  15. James C. Smith

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    I have made no attempt at calculating the number of units sold. It would be very different at different points in history. I could probably make a somewhat accurate formula for the weeks some of Reflexive’s games were in the top 10 list but then Real Networks would probably complain that I was breaking the non-disclosure terms of they contact they have with Reflexive. I am trying to be very careful to only base this on public information. Units sold is not public information. I have gotten in the trouble in the past when I posted results that were based on data from royalty statements.

    In the spreadsheet there is a formula used to assign a “scoreâ€￾ to each game based on how high up in the top 10 list it was placed and for how long. This very simple score is described at the bottom of the data. Basically a game gets 10 point for each week at #1 and 1 point for each week at #10. ScoreOneWeek = (11 – RankOneWeek) or 0 if not ranked that week. Total score is the sum of all these weekly score.
     
  16. ibsta

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    quality info I tell ya'.
     
  17. James C. Smith

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    For those who care to track this sort of thing, I update this Excel document every Wednesday when Real releases their new top 10 list for the week. As of today it shows that the games that have done best over the past 10 weeks are:

    Mah Jong Quest
    Bejeweled 2
    Big Kahuna Reef (only available for 8 out of the 10 weeks)
    Magic Ball 2
    Zuma Deluxe (may be near the end of it’s LONG run in the top 10)
    Diner Dash (very nice considering it has only been out for 4 week)
    Word Slinger (only available for 6 out of the 10 weeks)

    Last week's new release Heavy Weapon Deluxe debuted at the #6 spot in list. Today Real launch some great new games so the competition is really heating up. I expect next weeks top 10 to include Luxor, Cosmic Bugs, and maybe BeTrapped! But I am not sure which game would fall off the list to make room for them. There are so many great games out there now. (if you are into "casual" games)
     
  18. Sillysoft

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    Reading you message I looks very similar to a report about weekly movie box-office sales. Just like theater chains launch new movies and some last longer then others as best sellers.
     
  19. gpetersz

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    As a wannabe-indie I can't say anything else: thank you!
     
  20. z3lda

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    How about a web version? :)
     

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