To be honest I would disagree with you to some extent, choosing a good platform is important. However of the ones that are good, you shouldn't really spend too loong thinking about them. Just stay away from DirectX 8+, anything that refuses to be wrapped (gamemaker for example), or anything that is too slow (DarkBasic).
Also you should try not to use up too big a budget for your first title, as there is a good chance you won't make it back. Instead try something low budget to get experience. Then once you know what you can realistically expect you can remake the game with higher production quality, or go for something else. But getting a couple of games out will teach you exactly what you can expect.
Another way to fail is to make games that clearly aren't popular, like I do!


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) I made the decision that the game would be far more playable if I made it a 360 degree top-down shooter instead. So this is a pretty big set-back in terms of development (although 3D to 2Dish isn't nearly as hard as the other way around) but you have to recognize that something isn't working and change it regardless of how much work it was to do in the first place.
