Xbox 360 Live Arcade - 6 Weeks On

[simonh]

Thought this article was interesting:

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1520696/20060112/index.jhtml?headlines=true

Geometry Wars (probably the most successful Live Arcade title thus far), has had 200k demo downloads, and 45k sales. That's nearly a 25% conversion rate!

Not sure what the other games' conversion rates are like, but probably not too dissimilar, albeit with less downloads.

So, at this stage, what does this signify for the casual games market - is Live Arcade a serious platform that we should all be looking at? I think it is - in a year's time when the installed user base is much bigger, the sales have the potential to be huge.

Only problem I can see is that the 'indie' developers may well be crowded out by the professional developers and publishers if things really take off - Street Fighter 2 is due to be released soon, and no doubt lots of other top-quality retro conversions soon. It will make it harder for indie devs to compete.

Don't suppose any developers on here with a 360 Live Arcade game (I know there's a couple of you) wish to comment on how their game has performed so far and whether they plan to release more?

[PoV]

Not a bad start for the platform if you ask me. Thanks for the link.

[Gasproof]

I tried to search this.... but has anyone a clue how the payment is handled?

If it comes on a monthly bill (the Live cost), then I can see why the conversion rate is so ... exceptional... .
I guess most people (like myself) don't feel like filling in their data in order to purchase something.

I would be tempted more to download a full version, with the idea that I'll just have to pay the +5€ when the bill arrives instead of filling in some info.
Lazy? Don't know... In the store I pay with money and that's that.
I do admit that I don't really see how this would work out with kids :rolleyes: ... it could become a massive payment that way...

Nevertheless.... it's still interesting to see that so many ppl are actually willing to buy these games...having the l33t Xbox360 :rolleyes:

[simonh]

You have to buy Microsoft 'points' to buy Live Arcade titles. Microsoft points can be purchased in stores, or simply on the console with a credit card.

Once you have enough points in your account, then purchasing a full game is simply a case of clicking an icon or two.

[Gasproof]

Microsoft points can be purchased in stores
Once you have enough points in your account, then purchasing a full game
is simply a case of clicking an icon or two

Probably the most significant reason why it sells as good as it does.
I don't have any link to justify, but probably the most sales are thanks to the fact that you simply buy credits in the store and do a few clicks.

Great strategy... and a great platform indeed!

[DFG]

James you guys are doing stuff on the XBOX live right?

[gamelover]

hi
does any one know when fight night round 3 is coming out on the 360?

thanks:)

[Sharpfish]

hi
does any one know when fight night round 3 is coming out on the 360?

thanks:)


try:

www.gamespot.com
or
www.ign.com

Far more appropriate for that (and it's readily available info at aprox 1000 sites)

This is *indie*gamer.com *developer* forums ;)

- sorry if I sound like an ass but come on, Signal to Noise again.

[VladR]

Anyone knows how much does the Microsoft pay to developer ? Is it flat-fee license (i.e. no matter how much it sells, you get only this one flat-fee) or is it royalty-based ? If it`s royalty, what`s the average percentage one can expect ? 10%, or 20% ?

Even 10% with 50k sales is a fantastic revenue !

Thanks
VladR

[Fost]

Note, that those figures come from the group manager in charge of Live Arcade, who is trying to make the thing a big success! All mainstream devs lie about sales figures, it's part and parcel of courting publishers if you are a developer, and developers if you are a publisher.!

Obviously, the better it sounds, the more likely people are to jump on the bandwagon and raise live arcade's profile.

I'm just saying - take those figures with a pinch of salt.

[cyrus_zuo]

I'm just saying - take those figures with a pinch of salt.

I think that is well-stated.

I'm really curious to see how the arcade does for developers. On the one side I'm very happy and hopeful for them.

On the other side I'm very cautious. If Geometry Wars is the best seller (and based on all the articles I've read I'd bet it has sold 2:1 over any other game on Arcade) then it gives a couple things to go off of.

Let's say 50,000 units sold at $5 = $250,000
If the developer gets 50% (which based on who I've talked to seems quite high) that would be $125,000 (which is a lot of money!)

I think there are a few pieces (at least) to making a game fly (market[share], distribution, pricing). Microsoft appears to have one of them nailed down - Distribution.

Probably the most interesting point to me is the number of downloads - 200,000. Based on the estimates I've seen less than half (perhaps 1/4) of the people who have an Xbox (600,000 in the US + 3 or 4 people in Japan) have gotten on live. That would put about 300,000 on live of which 67% have downloaded the game. That is of course a big number...though my accounting class says that any number taken by itself doesn't tell you anything.

Anyway, I'm quite hopeful for the developers who are able to get their games on Live. If MS is able to ship a few more Xboxes and the numbers hold for the general population it certainly would be a boon for Indies!

[simonh]

Note, that those figures come from the group manager in charge of Live Arcade, who is trying to make the thing a big success! All mainstream devs lie about sales figures, it's part and parcel of courting publishers if you are a developer, and developers if you are a publisher.!

Obviously, the better it sounds, the more likely people are to jump on the bandwagon and raise live arcade's profile.

I'm just saying - take those figures with a pinch of salt.
I think it's quite hard to lie about sales figures on Live Arcade, as you can find out approximate sales figures yourself by looking at the lowest ranked person in the high score tables.

45k for Geometry Wars is about right - I'm ranked 10,000th on that with what I thought was a good score!

Currently addicted to Bankshot Billiards...

[Mark Currie]

That's nearly a 25% conversion rate!

I don't dispute sales numbers, but the conversion rate is bit harder to track. I believe the Geometry Wars demo was bundled with another game, so maybe the conversion rate is a bit lower than 25%.

[Fost]

I think it's quite hard to lie about sales figures on Live Arcade, as you can find out approximate sales figures yourself by looking at the lowest ranked person in the high score tables.

Isn't Geometry Wars bundled with PGR though on 360? so, the highscore table really reflects: number of Geometry Wars sales + number of people who own PGR 360 and played the Geometry Wars bit?

I'm speculating here from a semi-informed position, so please feel free to shoot me down in flames.

[Fabio]

Is the SDK free to develop such "small" games?

[luggage]

Isn't Geometry Wars bundled with PGR though on 360? so, the highscore table really reflects: number of Geometry Wars sales + number of people who own PGR 360 and played the Geometry Wars bit?

I'm speculating here from a semi-informed position, so please feel free to shoot me down in flames.Think it's the demo version you get with PGR3 and you can't post online hiscores when you have the demo. Not 100% sure though.

[Fost]

Think it's the demo version you get with PGR3 and you can't post online hiscores when you have the demo. Not 100% sure though.

Yes, you're right - it's a demo, and when you've finished it, it asks you to buy it online. No highscore posting either.

[Chris Evans]

Let's say 50,000 units sold at $5 = $250,000
If the developer gets 50% (which based on who I've talked to seems quite high) that would be $125,000 (which is a lot of money!)



I doubt the developer gets 50% of gross sales. I'm willing to guess it's more between 25-40%, which means about $60,000 - 100,000. Not bad for a small 1-2 team, if they spent less than a year making the game. But I don't see this has being attractive for the big publishers unless they can crank out some of their back catalog/retro games within a couple of months. Even for us small guys, the money is good but it still will only last for a year or less depending on the size of your team.

It seems like Live is a good "bonus" revenue stream, but not something you can strictly develop for.

[James C. Smith]

I doubt the developer gets 50% of gross sales. I'm willing to guess it's more between 25-40%

I would not make that assumption. It is possible for a self funded developer to get very favorable % of gross sales on Xbox.

[simonh]

Well it's still very early days of course. Give it a year or two and there will be millions more Live Arcade users.

[Chris Evans]

I would not make that assumption. It is possible for a self funded developer to get very favorable % of gross sales on Xbox.

That's good to hear. Hope it lasts. :)

[Teq]

Is the SDK free to develop such "small" games?

From the developers link on the website, if you are approved, you are approved to pay for the SDK, I'm sure the fee won't be a silly amount for indie developers, but still, better to make sure you have a game worth porting before you do so :)

[Fabio]

From the developers link on the website, if you are approved, you are approved to pay for the SDK, I'm sure the fee won't be a silly amount for indie developers, but still, better to make sure you have a game worth porting before you do so :)That's going to be really the minimum. ;)

[James Gwertzman]

We've been absolutely thrilled so far with the performance of our games on Xbox Live and in fact have increased our investment on future titles. I personally believe this really will have a major impact on the way games are sold going forward.

Microsoft, to their credit, is giving developers a very healthy royalty rate and thus making it possible to justify a decent investment on a new platform with a small install base.

The only downside that I see is intense competition looming to get a coveted slot on the Xbox Live Arcade. Microsoft is not going to release a flood of content. They are going to be very careful and measured in letting new games on, and now that the secret is out that games are doing phenomenally well (conversion rates 20%+, at least for now) I predict a flood of developers & publishers rushing to greenlight new projects.

As Greg Canessa made clear at the indie game con last fall, Microsoft will eventually open this up to small developers, but not for at least a year. In the meantime going through existing publishers is probably going to be your best shot.

[soniCron]

The only downside that I see is intense competition looming to get a coveted slot on the Xbox Live Arcade. Microsoft is not going to release a flood of content. They are going to be very careful and measured in letting new games on... I find it hard to believe that Microsoft will realize a huge market in downloadable content, and then keep the flood-gate on it. That's not their style! ;)

[VladR]

As Greg Canessa made clear at the indie game con last fall, Microsoft will eventually open this up to small developers, but not for at least a year. In the meantime going through existing publishers is probably going to be your best shot.Any examples of which publishers would be willing to "borrow" or at least provide me (for some percentage) with XBOX 360 dev-kit so that I could port our games to this platform (I`d self-fund the whole porting, just getting the dev-kit... ) ? Or is there some other way around developing on a regular non-dev XBOX360 (e.g. through Linux) ?

[ManuelFLara]

Any examples of which publishers would be willing to "borrow" or at least provide me (for some percentage) with XBOX 360 dev-kit so that I could port our games to this platform (I`d self-fund the whole porting, just getting the dev-kit... ) ? Or is there some other way around developing on a regular non-dev XBOX360 (e.g. through Linux) ?
I think GarageGames is an authorized X360 Live! Arcade publisher, although I don't know if they "borrow" the kits. AFAIK you can do most of the development with a PC and a X360 gamepad. Almost everything but Live! networking.

[Michael Flad]

I'd be very interested in getting some information about how hard it is getting a game onto XLA if access to an XDK isn't a problem (it wouldn't to me due to some friends/former employer) and the quality of the product is comparable with those already released.

It would be a pretty refreshing break but of course only if chances are really good to release a title after some months of development ;-))

[Teq]

I'm sure it's in Microsofts best interests to make it as easy as possible to port from a native Windows application developed using their technologies to such a product?

[simonh]

OK, courtesy of this ign article (http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/681/681837p1.html), here's the top 10 best sellers on Live Arcade so far:

1. Geometry Wars: Retro Evolved
2. Gauntlet
3. Smash TV
4. Bejeweled II
5. Zuma
6. Bankshot Billiards
7. Outpost Kaloki
8. Mutant Storm Reloaded
9. Joust
10. Wik: Fable of Souls

Games that did not make the cut are the Hardwood games (backgammon, hearts, spades), and Robotron.

Forthcoming games include Marble Blast Ultra, Crystal Quest, Feeding Frenzy and Astropop.

[samnova]

Regarding on how to become xbox developer please check
http://www.xbox.com/en-us/dev/default.htm

And for some tips on development:
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/dev/developingforxbox360.htm

Where they have a great document describing how to program for it (with hints on how things work on 360).

Example:
• Target the Direct3D 9.0 interface. This interface forms the basis of the Xbox 360 graphics API.
• Don’t rely heavily on Direct3DX (D3DX). D3DX utility functions are not tuned for Xbox 360—there are almost always faster ways to accomplish the same task.

Have fun,
Sam

[VladR]

Yes, I know this document about XBOX360 developing. Though, there`s probably no other way to get a dev-kit other than through a publisher (in which case, the price of kit is irrelevant, since it`s him that pays for it), right ?
Is it still the same situation for old XBOX ? I mean, companies are always going bankrupt. Although I can see that these items are the first to be grabbed from the company.

What`s the price of regular old XBOX dev-kit these days anyway ?

[samnova]

No idea about prices :(

But I know that with Sony and Nintendo you dont really own the kits, meaning you are not allowed to sell them to other people. So my guess would be that if a company closes that dev kits have to be returned. I would say it is the same with xbox... BUT it does happen from time to time that some hardware shows up on ebay (GBA dev kit have been seen).
So my feeling is that you either have to be very good friends with microsoft or with a publisher to get access to the hardware. Oh, and just because you have a publisher that is registered at microsoft it does not mean they can just lent you dev kits, you also have to be registered (NDA and such stuf) and then you or the publisher can buy dev kits for you. Of course if you have a publisher that wants you to develop a game, then it is way easier to become registered ;) (Same with Sony and Nintendo).
Cheers,
Sam
PS. I dont work with consoles but did in the past, so there is a chance that things changed, but I doubt it..

[soniCron]

Microsoft is not going to release a flood of content. They are going to be very careful and measured in letting new games on, and now that the secret is out that games are doing phenomenally well (conversion rates 20%+, at least for now) I predict a flood of developers & publishers rushing to greenlight new projects. From this Joystiq entry: (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/01/24/big-publishers-embrace-xbox-live-arcade-promise-original-titles/)

Larry Hryb, Xbox Live Director of Programming, interviewed Greg Canessa, the general manager of Xbox Live Arcade for his regular podcast. The two spent a good deal of time discussing Xbox Live Arcade, during which Canessa said:

"As the business has grown, we now are swamped--completely swamped--with folks that want in Arcade, large publishers and small publishers alike .... the Capcoms, Namcos, Midways, Konamis, EAs--those types of guys were like, 'Yeah, maybe one or two titles.' Now they're coming out with us saying, 'oh, we wanna do 25 titles. We wanna do 20 titles. We're starting up a division to do arcade titles.' So we have a huge amount of opportunities from the large publishers. Not just back-catalog stuff... The retro stuff is part of it, but it's also new content they wanna develop for arcade..."

[tolik]

Don't forget to provide an official list of games ;)
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/livearcadexbox360/default.htm

[Reanimated]

If the games are not written in C++, are they recoded, or does Live Arcade simply require the final compiled version?

[Ricardo Vladimiro]

Don't forget to provide an official list of games ;)
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/livearcadexbox360/default.htm

Thank you... just found out my original plan for the match-3 I'm doing has already been done by the Tetris man himself... even if I had never seen it before... I will be officially considered a cloner... :(

At least the gameplay is (aparantely) completely diferent and the theme is lightyears away from his game.

Yes... I'm a bit sad and frustrated... someone thought of it first and published it first...

[soniCron]

Our own Sharkbait's also got Atomixer (http://www.sharkbaitgames.com/atomixer)...

[Ricardo Vladimiro]

From what I see I'm working on something very diferent. I guess it was a punch in the stomach since I was convinced I had a new thing there. Anyway from the looks to the gameplay seems quite diferent so I'm not worried, I just don't fancy unjustified "rip-off" feeling.

The inclusion of a professional artist gave it a complete new look. But the initial board layout I had could be seen as a complete robbery. Never been so glad of the decision to contract someone with a cosmetic view. :D

[tolik]

Just repeating soniCron - Major's blogcast has interview with Greg Canessa, Xbox Live Arcade Group Manager that is almost 40 minutes long and discusses a lot of interesting stuff.

http://www.majornelson.com/2006/01/22/show-156-the-one-after-ces/

[gmcbay]

If the games are not written in C++, are they recoded, or does Live Arcade simply require the final compiled version?

Keep in mind that the Xbox 360 is not based on the Intel x86 line of processors. So if your game isn't in C++, you've got to find some way to get a version of the development language you used and any associated runtimes compiled for the Xbox360's architecture, which is pretty unlikely if you're using a third party commercial solution and you don't have the source.

In any case, judging by the way things look now, it looks like Live Arcade will be a pretty tough nut to crack considering it is going to be filled with content from professional AAA publishers/developers.

As far as the whole "devkit" questions go.. having a devkit for a console is mostly meaningless without a business relationship with the console manufacturer (and if you had that to begin with, they'd have no problem giving you a devkit). If you really want to try the Xbox360 route, just write a great game for the PC and make sure it gets Microsoft's attention either directly or through a third party that has been working on content for the 360 Live system (eg. Garage Games).