View Full Version : Real Arcade Top Ten Is Perplexing
Am I nuts for trying to make sense of this list? I initially thought that watching the top ten for a period of time (as well as studying the spreadsheet of past lists) would offer some bit of insight. In some ways it has but so often I find myself completely perplexed as to what is going on there.
This week I see that Tumblebugs has shot into the number 3 spot. Why? Luxor still sits firmly in first place. Who is buying the hell out of Tumblebugs? People who already own Luxor (and Zuma)? People who liked the gameplay of Luxor and Zuma but prefer the theme of Tumblebugs? This one surprised me.
Maui Wowee doesn't make sense to me either. Why did Barnyard Invasion drop into obscurity while Maui Wowee cleans up? (next week I'll be asking why Chuzzle shot into the top ten with Maui Wowee and Bejeweled 2 already there) Why didn't Glow Worm make the top ten? At least there was some unique game play there and the quality of the game was superb.
How is Diner Dash able to hang in there so long? I never would have imagined that is was so special to people. Frankly it seems rather dull to me. What is the very big deal with this game?
I can accept that the Real Arcade audience has an insatiable hunger for match 3, mahjong and the like. What I can't make sense of is how they choose one over the other. Is it strategic promotion of particular titles? Is it the subtle differences in the games that are reaping great rewards and disappointments? Is it luck and timing?
Are there any explanations to the successes and failures of those titles which make us go, "hmmm, why that one?"
donmc
05-25-2005, 07:50 PM
Well an interesting question is whether games in the retail channel exhibit the same behavior. The data for retail sales data is available over at www.gamasutra.com
Alternately, i'm somewhat skeptical about the validity of some data i run across. For awhile i was considering buying a website template over at www.templatemonster.com. I noticed that the vast majority of templates had 3-6 downloads with 5 very common. It seems that people like the bad templates there as much as the good ones. I visited there over a period of several months and the particular templates i was looking at never increased their download counts. I suspect that their numbers might be false, but i have only my suspicions.
~don
svero
05-25-2005, 09:13 PM
Well I'd say if you could tell with definite certainty which games would be top 10 games and which wouldn't then you'd be in a much better position than just about everyone else in the industry. Fact is most of us just don't know. Ocassionally a game will come along that is so great (zuma say) that you just know it will be a huge seller, but there are a lot of "maybe" games where it's hard to tell how they will be received. As for games of the same genre selling.. I'd say that yes, the people who bought luxor are also buying tumblebugs, and will likely go on to buy more of similar games in the future.
BantamCityGames
05-26-2005, 04:09 AM
I'd say that yes, the people who bought luxor are also buying tumblebugs, and will likely go on to buy more of similar games in the future.
I hope for your sake this is true :)
svero
05-26-2005, 07:07 AM
And not just wishful thinking eh :-) -- Well in beetle's case it should now be different enough that it will offer something worth buying even if you have those other games. New gameplay and other elements not already avaialble.
Barknee Holden
05-26-2005, 10:12 AM
I'm guessing that Glow Worm is one of those games that has a ramp up period. I bet it'll crack the top 10.
I'm guessing that Glow Worm is one of those games that has a ramp up period. I bet it'll crack the top 10.
if it was going to crack the top 10 it would of done it by now. the only type of ramp-up period I've seen is on 2 occasions.
After it's first week it's not on the top 10 but it is a hot seller.
The next week it gets in the top 10.
Its gets on the top 10 but in the lower half.
The next week it gets into the top half.
Matthew
05-26-2005, 02:06 PM
I'm guessing that Glow Worm is one of those games that has a ramp up period. I bet it'll crack the top 10.
Sales have already decreased on RA. We landed in the "hot sellers" category in our launch period; probably somewhere around #12-14 for sales by unit volume. The game no longer has "hot seller" status, so it's on the way down. The web version is now available on RealArcade, and we'll be testing an update aimed at increasing conversion rate soon.
Frankly, though, the likelihood the game will bubble up to the top 10 is very low. We learned a lot from production on the project, and even more by analyzing its response in the market. Our best hope for the project is to maintain a stable, if low, volume of sales and to employ lessons learned on our next two titles currently in development.
Sharpfish
05-26-2005, 02:20 PM
We learned a lot from production on the project, and even more by analyzing its response in the market
I know people like to keep their cards close to their chest but any chance you can elaborate on this? if not.. no worries :)
Sirrus
05-26-2005, 03:06 PM
Sales have already decreased on RA. We landed in the "hot sellers" category in our launch period; probably somewhere around #12-14 for sales by unit volume. The game no longer has "hot seller" status, so it's on the way down. The web version is now available on RealArcade, and we'll be testing an update aimed at increasing conversion rate soon.
Frankly, though, the likelihood the game will bubble up to the top 10 is very low. We learned a lot from production on the project, and even more by analyzing its response in the market. Our best hope for the project is to maintain a stable, if low, volume of sales and to employ lessons learned on our next two titles currently in development.
Why do you feel that it did not generate the buzz you hoped for? I'm very interested as to what lessons you learned.
Dan Prigg
05-27-2005, 08:37 AM
Our top ten is completely revenue driven. Trust me if it wasnt, you would see a lot more of Gamehouses titles up there then everyone elses. As far as predictability, my full time job is trying to find games that will break the top ten but even I have difficulty with it.
Mostly you get "A" titles and "C" titles. But the real issue is the "B" titles. Those will perplex you on both ends, the ones that do well or they do worse and you dont know why....
Miguel Tartaj
05-27-2005, 08:48 AM
Well I'd say if you could tell with definite certainty which games would be top 10 games and which wouldn't then you'd be in a much better position than just about everyone else in the industry.
(BTW this is first post...great initiative) ;)
I agree with your comment svero. In the retail sector (which has more experience and many more resources than online games) some mistakes are memorable (money spent versus final sales expected).
I would say this is a good thing after all. If it would be easy to know what sells and what doesn't then probably everybody would do the same thing. A space for originality and intuition is perfect for independent development.
arcadetown
05-27-2005, 02:57 PM
Fact is most of us just don't know.
Hit the nail on the head there. I've improved my eye for sales guesstimation and can now predict a game's performance 70% of time, weak if ask me but proves point that users are unpredictable.
When users love a certain genre then want more of it later, ala Luxor/Tumblebugs/Zuma. Does running Betty, Wendy, and Diner Dash here cause just 1/3rd the sales of each? Doesn't seem like it.
terin
05-27-2005, 09:50 PM
In comedy there is a rule. If its funny the first time it will be funny the second time.
For instance if you tell a funny joke during a monologue and 2 minutes later tell the joke again the audience will still laugh just as hard. Don't question why its true.... just accept it.
Games are the same way. Get a hit, make a game that is a hit, and the audience will laugh the second time... just don't be the 20th retelling of the joke ;-)
-Joe
Chris Evans
05-27-2005, 11:53 PM
Heh, also according to the BigFish newsletter, Tumble Bugs hit number one in just 2 days.
This week I see that Tumblebugs has shot into the number 3 spot. Why? Luxor still sits firmly in first place. Who is buying the hell out of Tumblebugs? People who already own Luxor (and Zuma)? People who liked the gameplay of Luxor and Zuma but prefer the theme of Tumblebugs? This one surprised me.
I bought Zuma, Luxor and Tumblebugs. You can call me stupid but I think these three games are different in a way. I first saw Zuma and liked it. Then I saw Luxor and thought it had better graphics and overall design than Zuma, so I dropped it. Then I saw Tumblebugs and I thought it had a softer handle than Luxor. When I shoot the balls/bugs in Zuma and Luxor, they sometimes land where I don't want them to. This annoys me a lot and is not so with Tumblebugs, which makes it a lot easier and less annoying...so I dropped Luxor. :D
svero
05-28-2005, 06:56 AM
Keep that credit card warm Nike... Beetle Bomp is on the way.. and it will be irresistable :-)
- S
Keep that credit card warm Nike... Beetle Bomp is on the way.. and it will be irresistable :-)- S
Oh really? I would appreciate some more power-ups! :cool:
looks like tumblebugs is the new king of Real.
Robert Cummings
06-02-2005, 12:11 AM
in all fairness tumblebugs even kept me amused for 10 minutes. Laugh away... it has a mindless casualness to it, and isn't as intense as say luxor, which can be demanding.
in all fairness tumblebugs even kept me amused for 10 minutes. Laugh away... it has a mindless casualness to it, and isn't as intense as say luxor, which can be demanding.
noone is laughing. I was just pointing out that Luxor was finally knocked out of #1. :)
Savant
06-02-2005, 06:21 AM
I don't get the shame in admitting that you enjoyed a casual puzzle game. Tumble Bugs is solid, polished and fun. Enjoy!
Sharpfish
06-02-2005, 07:29 AM
Having checked out the demo.. Tumblebugs is extremely solid, extremely polished and supremely interesting for the kind of player that likes that sort of thing. I have played all the other zuma clones and can say this one is my "favourite" if I I had to pick (coming from a hardcore gamer who only plays the demo I don't know how relevent that is ;) ). I think the location/map thing is interesting, the backdrops are great (inline with what you would normally find in a more "hardcore" game) and overall it is just very very polished. So credit where it's due.. but they had a fairly big team to do it with so I would expect that. Simple game concept it may be, but it is more polished than many "hardcore" efforts I have checked out in the past,and casual seems to be where the money is so you can't fault them really.
i like how they incoporated actual game play into the main menu
Yuriy O
06-06-2005, 07:02 AM
In comedy there is a rule.
Games are the same way. Get a hit, make a game that is a hit, and the audience will laugh the second time... just don't be the 20th retelling of the joke ;-)
-Joe
Is not that the truth?
It's plane and simple. Portals combine their top 10s just like they feel for it, plus they keep top sellers there too.
They put Thumblebugs to the 1st place to try it on. If it sells well then it will stay there or around... So, Yes. It's inflated.
Mike Boeh
06-06-2005, 07:27 AM
Is not that the truth?
It's plane and simple. Portals combine their top 10s just like they fill for it, plus they keep top sellers there too.
They put Thumblebugs to the 1st place to try it on. If it sells well then it will stay there or around... So, Yes. It's inflated.
According to Real, this is not the case. Daniel from Real has already said here that they strictly go by revenue.... Of course, if they promote a game heavily out of the chute, it will generate more revenue, and rank higher...
But eventually, I have seen that they let the numbers dictate what they do... Cosmic Bugs wasn't promoted much right away, probably because it wasn't a proven genre, and the graphics were, well, "boy". But as soon as it showed it could sell, they did start to give it some promotion.
Yuriy O
06-06-2005, 10:46 AM
But eventually, I have seen that they let the numbers dictate what they do... Cosmic Bugs wasn't promoted much right away, probably because it wasn't a proven genre, and the graphics were, well, "boy". But as soon as it showed it could sell, they did start to give it some promotion.
That's about what I was trying to say. They stick it to the first place for promotion, while other titles mainly proven by numbers.
That's about what I was trying to say. They stick it to the first place for promotion, while other titles mainly proven by numbers.
wrong and that wasn't what Retro64 was trying to say either. the amount of marketing they do for a game will affect it's position, but they aren't going to put a game in the number 1 slot if it isn't the top revenue generator for that period, just because they have a feeling it might do well. The top ten is based on revenue, pure and simple.
Yuriy O
06-07-2005, 05:51 AM
wrong and that wasn't what Retro64 was trying to say either. the amount of marketing they do for a game will affect it's position, but they aren't going to put a game in the number 1 slot if it isn't the top revenue generator for that period, just because they have a feeling it might do well. The top ten is based on revenue, pure and simple.
How could Thunmblebugs could become revenue #1 if it's just been released in the end of May 2005?
Mike Boeh
06-07-2005, 05:56 AM
How could Thunmblebugs could become revenue #1 if it's just been released in the end of May 2005?
Their sales period they use to determine ranking is only the previous week. So the previous week, the week it was released, it outsold every other game on real.
James C. Smith
06-07-2005, 06:05 AM
They do have many other ways of promoting games other than cheating the top 10 positions. The most effect promotion tool is probably their e-mail database. They have hundreds of thousands of e-mail address of people who buy games. Many of them are people who are required to buy a game every month because of their game pass subscription. It is very easy to see how a good game, that is promoted heavily, could become #1 in a single week. In fact, if you look back though the history in the spreadsheet I made, you will see that almost all the log lasting hit started out by popping up to #1 (or 2 or 3) very quickly. Games like Zuma, Jew Quest, and Mahjong Quest jump up to the top of the list right away. It is rare for a game to start out at the bottom of the list and slowly climb up.
This has nothing to do with Real “sticking it to the first place for promotion.” I do not believe they ever do that.
For what it's worth I don't think the Real Top Ten is "rigged" either. That was not my original point and I didn't intend to fuel that fire.
The bigger question is what drives people to choose one game of very similar gameplay over another. The Tumblebugs example has begun to make a bit more sense. Yes it is solid and polished but I personally prefer Luxor and I wouldn't even think to buy both. I think Svero is correct that many people are buying both. And they will continue to do so when the next one is released, should it also be polished and solid.
By that logic, I will be surprised if Wild West Wendy does not do very well considering the success of Diner Dash. The gameplay is similar and they are both solid and polished. We'll see.
ggambett
06-08-2005, 06:41 PM
By that logic, I will be surprised if Wild West Wendy does not do very well considering the success of Diner Dash. The gameplay is similar and they are both solid and polished. We'll see.
*cough*4th place (http://www.realarcade.com/gameguide?rdo=true)*cough* :D (and 2nd in this other portal (http://get.games.yahoo.com/home) you may have heard about). Yes, I'm damn happy :)
Wonderful Gabriel. You've got yourself a hit. Congratulations!
svero
06-08-2005, 08:40 PM
*cough*4th place (http://www.realarcade.com/gameguide?rdo=true)*cough* :D (and 2nd in this other portal (http://get.games.yahoo.com/home) you may have heard about). Yes, I'm damn happy :)
Very nice. Especially yahoo.. That's big sales. Now that you're rich I hope you dont forget us poor folk.
- S
PS : Im short exactly 1 ferrari.
Matthew
06-08-2005, 08:57 PM
Congrats Gabriel! That rocks!
BantamCityGames
06-09-2005, 04:06 AM
*cough*4th place (http://www.realarcade.com/gameguide?rdo=true)*cough* :D (and 2nd in this other portal (http://get.games.yahoo.com/home) you may have heard about). Yes, I'm damn happy :)
Thats great Gabriel! Did you buy your mansion yet? :D
Yuriy O
06-09-2005, 04:22 AM
They do have many other ways of promoting games other than cheating the top 10 positions. The most effect promotion tool is probably their e-mail database. They have hundreds of thousands of e-mail address of people who buy games. .
I would very agree with this point.
*cough*4th place (http://www.realarcade.com/gameguide?rdo=true)
Congrats Gabriel :)
However, this leads me to a French version of the page (http://www.realarcade.com/gameguide?rdo=true&lang=FR), which doesn't have WWW on it...
Daniel
06-09-2005, 05:15 PM
*cough* :D (and 2nd in this other portal (http://get.games.yahoo.com/home) you may have heard about)
Yeah, if it weren't for those dorks behind that silly Spin & Win game - the #1 spot would be yours! I wonder who that might be? ;)
Seriously though, congrats man!
Wishing you the best of luck....
Robert Cummings
06-10-2005, 01:08 AM
Congrats dude, here's hoping WWW is your success story :)
ggambett
06-10-2005, 12:10 PM
Thanks for your encouragment, guys. 2 years ago, june 2003, we were opening our website to the public and offering PegSweeper. I'm sure we wouldn't have achieved so much in 2 years if it weren't for your constant support.
Sorry for temporarily derrailing the thread, so let's get it back to its track : how perplexing is RealArcade's top 10! ;)
sparkyboy
06-11-2005, 04:43 AM
Sorry not quite yet. ;)
Just like to say JESUS H CHRIST!!!!!!! Congratulations is not really a strong enough superlative!!!! YOU MUST BE WRAPPED!! :eek:
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy!!! :cool:
Well done gabe!! Beers are on you I think no! :p
All the best
Mark.
soniCron
06-11-2005, 09:11 AM
Yeah, I'm just going to have to add to this buzz of praise:
EXCELLENT JOB! I think you really hit the mark with your latest titles and that is very apparent by their popularity. Keep up the good work and give us more, More, MORE to play! ;)
Nexic
06-28-2005, 09:55 AM
Well, going by gabe's sucess I should be stinking rich within the next 6 months... Yeah right!
WELL DONE GAB!
Mike Boeh
07-06-2005, 06:07 PM
Welp the new top 10 is out... Wheel of Fortune is #1 again. A new game was released called "Chowder". Is it me or is this game a bit below the production values of most RA games?
simonh
07-06-2005, 06:11 PM
I was thinking exactly the same thing just now - it reminds me of the type of game you used to see years ago.
Maybe it's a new type of game, old school casual. Yeah.
stanchat
07-06-2005, 06:47 PM
Welp the new top 10 is out... Wheel of Fortune is #1 again. A new game was released called "Chowder". Is it me or is this game a bit below the production values of most RA games?
The game is from the same guys who made SNOOD. I downloaded and played and actually it is pretty fun. I am actually kinda rooting for this game and I hope it does well in terms of sales. This whole elite REAL ARCADE ("High Production Values") attitude always seemed shaky/suspect to me. It reeks of the old NBA myth that persisted for decades that HIGH SCHOOL players could not compete in the NBA so they were excluded for decades from ever participating in the NBA. When given the chance, you now have a league where the top players are primariliy HIGH SCHOOL players.
I just think they need to lighten up a little and understand that their are plenty of good games with ("Acceptable Production Values") that probably would do well on their site.
soniCron
07-06-2005, 07:00 PM
I just think they need to lighten up a little and understand that their are plenty of good games with ("Acceptable Production Values") that probably would do well on their site. Generally speaking, the worse a game looks, the better chance it's not very good. That's not to say a good looking game is necessarily good, but if you're going to spend the money on good art, you very well may spend it on good game design. Ever hear of dressing your best? ;)
I downloaded and played it for a bit. :confused: If it makes the top ten it will definately be at the top of my perplexing list.
joelfinch
07-08-2005, 07:16 PM
I just think they need to lighten up a little and understand that their are plenty of good games with ("Acceptable Production Values") that probably would do well on their site.
Personally, I don't see any evidence of a snooty attitude, or any barrier to entry for games with "Acceptable Production Values" as you put it. Chowder *is* available on RealArcade, for example, it's not like they turned their nose up at publishing it.
vBulletin v3.6.0, Copyright ©2000-2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.