Where is the casual market headed?

[soniCron]

With gorillas like Ubisoft and EA entering the casual game space, where do you see it being directed in the future?

Do you think mondo-macho core studios like EA and Ubisoft will be able to trim the fat and produce games capable of turning a profit? Or might they work, instead, at a loss in an effort to shrink and corner the playing field?

Will this in any way benefit smaller developers? Perhaps by being bought out (as a few of our own prolific members have) or widening the market to an audience, exposing niches?

What are your opinions regarding this potentially massive change to the casual game landscape?

[Bad Sector]

When IBM decided to enter the home computer space with PC, the PC team worked in a different fashion from the rest of the company because of the differences between the markets.

That is what comes to my mind when i think about the subject and i can only assume that the teams in EA/Ubisoft/whatever that are responsible for the casual market will work in a different way than the rest of the company does.

As to what that means for the smaller developers, i think that the effect will be the expected "better production values" for anything they make. On the other hand, i don't know how much polishing a casual game can take before reaching a point where the extra polish doesn't matter for the game to sell (i don't believe that the average Joe really notices that incorrectly shaded pixel at the bottom left corner of the screen - in fact i don't believe that average Joe notices anything that takes less screen space than his fingernails and is not presented straight to his face).

[Applewood]

That is what comes to my mind when i think about the subject and i can only assume that the teams in EA/Ubisoft/whatever that are responsible for the casual market will work in a different way than the rest of the company does
I don't share that opinion. The likes of EA won't ever understand that an ideal size for a team working on a downloadable game is two and not twenty.

In fact I'm pretty sure they'll give up on this after a while as whilst their titles will be top-notch quality I just can't see them capturing the spirit of accessability. DTD manages to get played zillions of times despite not having an intro movie and five bazillion lines of scrolling credits for example.

I reckon they'll get as big and well-known as popcap and friends, but no further - they won't be squeezing anyone out because they don't control anything to do the squeezing.

[Bad Sector]

I don't share that opinion. The likes of EA won't ever understand that an ideal size for a team working on a downloadable game is two and not twenty.

Possibly, but then the responses about IBM PC was like "they overestimate themselves" and "they cannot understand the home computer market". Because i've seen responses like yours is why that IBM story comes to my mind :-).

I believe that it's quite possible for them to do the right thing. I don't say that i'm totally sure, but i think that it's possible. It just needs the right people to work on the whole thing.

[Polycount Productions]

There's always room for indies, since average "salaries" (zero budget, working 16 hours per day ;)) is something big studios cannot afford :D

[Applewood]

I'm sure they could handle it financially. Games like bejewelled I'm sure will have generated revenues over the years that even EA would look upon as worthwhile.

The thing is, they need to do it right every time and that's something I can't see. Especially given there's already stiff competition in this space from people who definitely can maintain a sustained presence here.

I think big money coming into this arena is a good thing. My pure guess for the future is that they'll raise awareness amongst new punters to the downloadable market by such a large amount that they'll push up sales for everyone. Assuming they can compete quality-wise with an EA produced title.

[datxcod]

Maybe it will affect indies in regards to market saturation.

It used to be that to get your game published in a portal you'd have to wait a couple of weeks. Nowadays you'll wait months for your game to get published in a big portal. Now imagine those big studios churning out game after game with very high production values, an indie would have to wait even more months to have small chance of getting his game noticed, due to the huge list of games queued up for release. I think that's where the importance of having your own established list of customers comes in.

[Nikos Beck]

Do you think mondo-macho core studios like EA and Ubisoft will be able to trim the fat and produce games capable of turning a profit?

When they're "casual" game budgets are under a quarter of a million dollars... maybe.

EA has PC casual games and cell-phone games in the same division. I suspect that their money will come from deals with cellular service providers. The cell company gets to promote exclusive games from AAA licenses while EA gets a cut of the monthly service fees to offset the development costs. These kinds of deals will bankroll projects and probably turn a profit. That's not a market I'm personally striving for.

[Nikos Beck]

There's always room for indies, since average "salaries" (zero budget, working 16 hours per day ;)) is something big studios cannot afford :D

Right on! Take that EA and Ubi!

[ChrisP]

Yeah! Our salaries are lower than your salaries! Fight the power!

...That is a good thing, right? ;)

[Applewood]

That's funny!

"They can't hope to compete with us because we make nothing" :D

[moose6912]

Maybe it will affect indies in regards to market saturation.

It used to be that to get your game published in a portal you'd have to wait a couple of weeks. Nowadays you'll wait months for your game to get published in a big portal. Now imagine those big studios churning out game after game with very high production values, an indie would have to wait even more months to have small chance of getting his game noticed, due to the huge list of games queued up for release. I think that's where the importance of having your own established list of customers comes in.

That is a very real fear which may just be true.

[Applewood]

Not sure why, you can't be expecting EA to be selling stuff through existing channels, surely ? I can guarantee you they'll setup their own and I doubt they'll do affiliate stuff either.

There's going to be a new kid on the block, but they're not taking over the whole town.

[princec]

Well, back to doing what we do best then. The Age of Pavlina comes to a close.

Cas :)

[Dyno Kid]

Just been onto www.pogo.com and in the top right theres a number with 160,000 users online now........OUCH!!!!

With 9000 users playing a game called poppit, looks like EA have it in the bag and we simply can't compete with the big boys.

Darren.

[zoombapup]

why do you even give a crap?

I'm reading a book about monopolies and globalization and how it affects the diversity of a given industry and I see clear comparisons between things like retail and game "publishing".

The thing that I see happening, is that your "portal" sites are going to become more and more focussed on a selected range of products. They will focus on the highest selling items and quickly drop lower selling products, usually they will try and make it look like thier range is diverse by essentially cross selling some products with others as loss leaders (of course forcing the producer of said product to foot the bill for the loss).

Essentially, they will follow the process that every business does as it grows, try and kill off any competition, try and monopolize the consumers you get (by maybe locking them into subscriptions or requiring a central download manager or some such), try and force margins and costs down by squeezing all you can out of your suppliers.

Its all clearly happening already. The fact is, a few years ago you would have gotten a lot better royalty rate than you do today, do you think the %age of income spent on advertising from a portal has changed over that time? Clearly basically the supply chain has been squeezed in order to get margin.

Right now, I'd say the best way to not be affected by the eventual monopolies that will form, is to build your own brand equity by creating truly unique products that the "chains" wouldnt be interested in. So dont do portal trash, do something unique and compelling instead.

Personally, I think 3d social networking sites are an interesting route to take. I've been trying vSide recently and I can see there's something that that interests me (that game in particular skews to a teen audience, but I can see that there are alternatives).

Microtransactions and social gaming are the future!!

[datxcod]

Not sure why, you can't be expecting EA to be selling stuff through existing channels, surely ? I can guarantee you they'll setup their own and I doubt they'll do affiliate stuff either.

There's going to be a new kid on the block, but they're not taking over the whole town.

Well last time I checked, big portals usually sell their games through several different channels. An example, the game peggle developed by PopCap games, as you know, one of the biggest portals out there sells the game through bigFishGames, yahoo games, reflexive and others. Just because studios like EA or UBI have the money to develop casual games it doesn't mean that they have the audience that big portals have. So I wouldn't be surprised if they create partnerships with existing portals to sell their games through them as well.

I'm not saying that this will make it impossible for indies to have a product in a portal. Just that it will raise the quality bar and it'll certainly make it harder for indies to have their product published in a portal. Of course you can always sell your stuff through your own site but from what I've read here from several successful developers, you can't compare selling a product through a channel to selling it through your own site.

Just a thought though.

[zoombapup]

Depends on if you have a product that sells more naturally through your own site.

[Escapee]

I think 3d social networking sites are an interesting route to take. Microtransactions and social gaming are the future!!

The future belongs to http://www.secondlife.com/

Real $3.1M mansion causes a virtual stir (second life) (http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/08/lifestyle/secondlife_house/index.htm?postversion=2007080911)


In real life, a house like this might normally attract the attention of 50 to 100 people, but since Wednesday 3,500 people have toured the home in Second Life, according to its broker, Suzanne Lane. Not all of them are prospective buyers of course -- in a virtual world it's easy for anyone who's curious to just stop by. :D

[Oaf]

That's a coincedence - I've just been checking out Second Life today.

It's pants!

I can't stand it. It's chuggy, buggy, and just plain boring. I really can't see the point in it at all. I must be missing something obvious!

Back to the point, agreed - portal fodder isn't the way to go. Building your own brand, your own unique IP and community is.

[Escapee]

I can't stand it. It's chuggy, buggy, and just plain boring.

Second life is more like facebook + alibaba.com with a 3 D world to explore. Sweden has just built their virtual embassy on second life. This is complete madness. :p

http://www.sweden.se/templates/cs/Article____16345.aspx

[zoombapup]

For an indie scale alternative to second life, check out vSide, its make with torque and has what seems to be a reasonbly lively userbase. Although it mainly skews towards the teen market, I feel like they have something there. The notion of just going somewhere to chill out and listen to some tunes and do some virtual dancing with virtual dates? Kind of works at some level, certainly was interesting watching people "play" it.

Makes me wonder what a more mature 3D world would offer. But as someone said to me today, maybe more mature audiences dont seek out that kind of experience.

[Escapee]

Hmm, a more matured audience would probably seek out sites like redlightcenter dot com ( A mature site ) . Again it's a adultfinder + 3D world (and action). It's truly amazing how fast social networking sites have progressed.

[cliffski]

That's a coincedence - I've just been checking out Second Life today.
It's pants!
I can't stand it. It's chuggy, buggy, and just plain boring. I really can't see the point in it at all. I must be missing something obvious!


second life is brilliant.

in principle.

In practice its awful, because it relies on user generated content with no central art direction, and its engine sucks. Why someone big has not tried to do second life better amazes me. I'd do it tomorrow if I had the budget and a big team.

[mooktown]

In practice its awful, because it relies on user generated content with no central art direction, and its engine sucks. Why someone big has not tried to do second life better amazes me. I'd do it tomorrow if I had the budget and a big team.

until you've had sex in second life, you just don't know second life! ;)

...anyhoo, the dead-like poser-like models are a put off but the customisation features are pretty well implemented.

[Spiegel]

Back on topic...

Maybe it will affect indies in regards to market saturation.

It used to be that to get your game published in a portal you'd have to wait a couple of weeks. Nowadays you'll wait months for your game to get published in a big portal. Now imagine those big studios churning out game after game with very high production values, an indie would have to wait even more months to have small chance of getting his game noticed, due to the huge list of games queued up for release. I think that's where the importance of having your own established list of customers comes in.

They cant churn out game after game, because it will not profit as much... I see casual gaming becoming more and more like mainstream... Until the point that production values are so high that there will be two mainstreams... One form THE Mainstream and a Casual mainstream... And then there will be the fair Indie folk (FIF)...

Don't worry so much as the big guys come in the scene ready to make a buck... they are investing in something that does not pose a risk for them... different minded games pose a risk for those big firm suit manager and they will steer well away from them... they will make the new match 3/find clues/dinner management game with highly polished production and lots of publicity...
I do not see them investing in the indie kind of games niche... I may be wrong anyway.. :D

[Spore Man]

EA will have an impact, but I don't expect them to be the innovators of whatever the future holds for Casual games. Just look at how myopic they were with regards to the Nintendo Wii.

[mooktown]

...its engine sucks. Why someone big has not tried to do second life better amazes me.

you mean like playstation home (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playstation_Home)?

[voxel]

Don't worry so much as the big guys come in the scene ready to make a buck... they are investing in something that does not pose a risk for them... different minded games pose a risk for those big firm suit manager and they will steer well away from them... they will make the new match 3/find clues/dinner management game with highly polished production and lots of publicity...
I do not see them investing in the indie kind of games niche... I may be wrong anyway.. :D

I pretty much agree with you... EA/Ubi are going to make Match-3 / I-Spy / DTD / Whatever-is-hot clones.

Indies need to create their own niche - Toribash, Bridge Builder, Armadillo Run.

On the flipside, you have bigger success from left field like Habbo Hotel, Second Life, Club Penguin, Webinz... that have nothing to do with the normal game biz.

[cliffski]

you mean like playstation home (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playstation_Home)?

For some reason I just don't think sony would get it. They are obsessed with being 'hip' and cool, and most people in 'the industry' hate the sims with a vengeance and consider that sort of thing beneath them, despite it being actually mega popular.
I might be wrong, and the dozen people who bought a PS3 might really enjoy it :D

[moose6912]

For some reason I just don't think sony would get it. They are obsessed with being 'hip' and cool, and most people in 'the industry' hate the sims with a vengeance and consider that sort of thing beneath them, despite it being actually mega popular.:D

I don't exactly get the fixation with being hip and cool. A fun game is a fun game, irregardless of it being hip and cool.

[Adrian Cummings]

In answer ot the original topic question - i'll be honest, I have totally no idea truth be told - er heh :)

[datxcod]

Since some of the previous posters are talking about online games:

I think that the real money is in community based games, a game called project entropia (now entropia universe) http://www.entropiauniverse.com (mmorpg) was launched in 2003 by the Swedish company "Mindark" (I also started playing when it came out in 2003) the graphics were 3d but poor for the time, there was no physics, ugly textures, few weapons, and lots of lag. The world was basically a huge ass terrain (seemed generated procedurally) with very few buildings (and those buildings were poorly modeled and as I said ugly textures) By 2005 they were making more than $ 150 millions USD in revenues, they have sold virtual pieces of land to people for $ 100Ks and even more for other virtual items, what's amazing is that people buy that stuff. The 2006 turnover was of more than $ 360 million USD. (now they are going to use the cryengine 2.0 for the game)

They were chosen over several other big online games (second life one of them) by china to create a "cash-based virtual economy" for them. They expect to make over $ 1 billion USD from the partnership.

Casual games are beer money compared to that :)

And it's no surprise that sony wants the same with their "playstation home" it will be free for anyone with a PS3 like entropia universe and it will build a massive community for them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropia_Universe

[mooktown]

I might be wrong, and the dozen people who bought a PS3 might really enjoy it :D

lol, this is true. I wonder if a wii second life could work? An update to the mii characters with small houses and villages as in animal crossing would work well imo.

"mii life" anyone?

[DFG]

Buyouts, consolidations, and lots of big money.

[whisperstorm]

I agree with the comment that pbbg (http://www.pbbg.org/default.asp)'s are the real moneymakers. You have people spending incredible amounts of time in your game and investing alot of emotional currency as well.

I think games like Areae, Whirled, and whatever Conduit Labs (http://www.conduitlabs.com/) is working on is going to be the next Flickr or Youtube....